Weekly Data Points
08/15/2024
- Retail Sales Better than Expected
- Possible these are based on early-mid July data and downward revisions could be larger. See Amazon, Home Depot, McDonalds, etc., on waning consumer demand, sometimes even “worse than normalization.”
Walmart
- Q2 comp sales ex gas up 4.3% vs. 3.41%
- Q2 comp sales ex gas Sam’s Club up 5.2% vs. 3.9% expected.
- Q2 eps beat 67c vs 65c.
- Q3 Walmart comp sales expected to be between 3.25-4.25%.
- GLP-1s contributing to health sales.
- August sales consistent – no weakness at Walmart.
- CEO: “not expecting notable deflation looking ahead.”
- Per Bloomberg: The “catch” is Walmart sales are gaining as higher-income consumers are hunting for deals.
- eCommerce up 21%.
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8/09/2024
PPI Tuesday 8/13, CPI Wednesday 8/14, Retail Sales and $BABA earnings Thursday 8/15.
IMO If PPI and CPI come in at or low, markets have gotten concerned over corporate revenues / EPS (as of last 8 weeks or so).
Biggest catalyst next week IMO will be retail sales for July. Everything I'm studying in earnings calls and reports indicates July hit a wall (Travel, Theme Parks, Airlines, energy drinks, you name it).
Retail sales are currently expected to:
-Grow to 0.4% MoM vs 0% prior
-Grow 0.1% MoM ex auto vs 0.4% prior
-Grow 0.2% MoM Ex Auto Ex Gas vs 0.8% prior
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07/29/2024
McDonalds
- First sales decline since 2020.
- “Better than feared.”
- Expecting to add 1600 stores in 2024.
- Number of $5 meals sold over expectations.
- Demand falling amongst lower income.
- $5 meal may be driving traffic.
- Losing share in France, but introducing 4-euro happy meal.
Tuesday Morning
- JOLTS to be 8055k
- SOFI
- Paypal
- Proctor & Gamble
- Jet Blue
Tuesday Afternoon
- AMD
- Microsoft
- Starbucks
- Pinterest
- Lemonade
- First Solar
- Caesars
Wednesday Morning
- ADP Employment
- Employment Cost Index – expected to be 1%.
- Fed Day
- Caesars
- Boeing
- Wingstop
- Mastercard
- Craft
Wednesday Afternoon
- Meta
- ARM
- Qualcomm
- Carvana
- Lam Research
- Etsy
- Western Digital
- Cheesecake
Thursday Morning
- ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid
- Moderna
- Wayfair
- Roblox
- Crocs
Thursday Afternoon
- Amazon
- Apple
- Intel
- Coinbase
- Roku
- DraftKings
- Block
- Snap
- Cloudflare
- Doordash
- Rocket Mortgage
Friday
- Jobs report: expecting 175k jobs and 4.1% unemployment (stable).
Goldman Sachs
- Believes earnings will be a bigger catalyst than the Fed this week. Fed should be predictable.
- Hence, the risk is: the Fed DOES NOT tee up a cut, which could catch markets off guard.
On Semiconductors
- Optimistic on inventory sell through and return to growth.
- 52% autos, 28% industrial (robots/EV chargers), 20% other including data centers.
Small Cap Convertibles
- WSJ report on small caps issuing low-cost debt via convertible bonds.
- SNAP issued $750m at 0.5% per year, due in 2030, convertible if the stock goes to $22.18. Closed at $13.33 last week.
- Lyft issued $460m at 0.625% per year, due in 2029, convertible if the stock goes to $21.08. Closed at $12.23 last week.
- Highest issuance of convertible bonds since 2021, so far this year.
Bank of America on Fed Cuts
- Does not believe the Fed is read to signal that a September cut “is a done deal.”
- IMO, more likely to suggest that talks have begun, but no decision has been made.